MEXICO: ECONOMIC FORECASTS
ACUS CONSULTING // ALBERTO CALVA
July 4, 2017
TRENDS TO KEEP AN EYE ON (1)
|
Forecasts for 2017:
|
Forecast 6 months ago
|
Forecast 1 month ago
|
Last forecast
|
|
GDP growth rate for Mexico
|
1.60%
|
1.49%
|
1.98% (2)
|
|
Inflation rate
|
4.13%
|
5.90%
|
6.02% (3)
|
|
TIIE (interbank) rate
|
6.46%
|
7.23%
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7.12% (4)
|
|
Cetes (T’Bills) rate
|
6.44%
|
7.22%
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7.12% (4)
|
|
Average unemployment rate
|
4.06%
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3.74%
|
3.73% (5)
|
|
Exchange rate USD/MXN
|
21.21
|
19.53
|
18.74 (5)
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(1) Base on the monthly surveys from Banxico (Mexico’s central bank)
(2) The GDP growth rate remained in a minimum of 1.49% for 3 months, starting a recovery since 3 months ago
(3) Constant increasing trend up since 6 months ago
(4) Constant increasing trend until last month
(5) With a decreasing trend since 5 months ago
Highlights:
- The expected growth for 2017 of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Mexico is in 1.98%. After a decreasing trend the GDP growth rate remained in a minimum 1.49% until three months ago. The forecast for 2017 was 4.18% in December 2014, 3.29% in December 2015 and 1.60% in December 2016
- Expected unemployment rate for Mexico for 2017 (average) was adjusted from 3.80% two months ago to 3.74% last month and to 3.73% this month
- The expected growth rate of the US GDP was 2.15% last month (2.19% two months ago) to 2.17% this month.
- Expected closing exchange rate USD/MXN for 2017 from 19.53 last month (19.75 two months ago) to 18.74 and for 2018 from 19.39 last month (19.67 two months ago) to 18.67.
- The expected inflation rate for Mexico for 2017 is in 6.02% this month. It has an increasing trend for the last 16 months (3.31% in December 2015 and 4.13% in December 2016). For 2018 it is forecasted in 3.81%.
- Last, but not least, TIIE (interbank rate) for 2017 was adjusted from 7.23% last month to 7.12% this month, but a year ago it was forecasted in 4.94%. Cetes (T’Bills) from 7.22% last month to 7.12% this month, but 4.87% a year ago.
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Based on the monthly surveys from Banxico among private firms. Last survey took place between June 22 to 28, 2017
|
Average this month
in survey
|
Average last month
in survey
|
Average two months ago
in survey
|
|
Inflation (2017)
(2018)
(2019)
|
6.02%
3.81%
3.55%
|
5.90%
3.88%
3.56%
|
5.67%
3.83%
3.51%
|
|
Exchange rate (close 2017)
(close 2018)
(close 2019)
|
18.74
18.67
18.45
|
19.53
19.39
19.30
|
19.75
19.67
19.54
|
|
Cetes 28 days (close 2017)
(close 2018)
(close 2019)
|
7.12%
7.06%
6.73%
|
7.22%
7.23%
6.95%
|
7.04%
7.20%
6.99%
|
|
TIIE (interbank rate) (close 2017)
(close 2018)
|
7.12%
6.83%
|
7.23%
7.21%
|
7.06%
7.16%
|
|
Unemployment rate (annual average) (2017)
(2018)
|
3.73%
3.77%
|
3.74%
3.76%
|
3.80%
3.86%
|
|
GDP Mexico (growth rate) (2017)
(2018)
(2019)
|
1.98%
2.23%
2.29%
|
1.97%
2.18%
2.38%
|
1.66%
2.12%
2.35%
|
|
GDP U.S.A. (growth rate) (2017)
(2018)
|
2.17%
2.36%
|
2.15%
2.40%
|
2.19%
2.35%
|
FUTURES MARKET (MexDer & CME Group) as of July 3, 2017
|
|
Dec. 2017
|
Jun. 2018
|
Dec. 2018
|
Dec. 2019
|
Dec. 2020
|
|
USD/MXN CME
|
18.69
|
19.18
|
19.63
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
|
USD/MXN MexDer
|
18.64
|
19.16
|
19.61
|
20.47
|
21.37
|
|
EUR/MXN MexDer
|
21.42
|
22.22
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
|
EUR/USD CME
|
1.147
|
1.158
|
1.171
|
1.197
|
1.224
|
|
USD/CAD CME
|
1.297
|
1.295
|
1.293
|
1.289
|
1.286
|
|
TIIE 28 days MexDer
|
7.31%
|
6.77%
|
6.62%
|
6.40%
|
6.84%
|
|
Cetes 91 days MexDer
|
6.68%
|
6.66%
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
|
Mexican Stock Exchange MexDer (index)
|
51,466
|
52,945
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
|
Mexican Stock Exchange MexDer
(% increase)
|
+12.76%
versus Dec.2016
|
+16.00%
versus Dec.2016
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
CME: CME Group / Chicago Mercantile Exchange, MexDer: Mercado Mexicano de Derivados (Mexican Derivatives Market), MXN: Mexican Peso, USD: US Dollar, CAD: Canadian Dollar, EUR: Euro, TIIE: Mexican interbank rate
Cetes: Mexican treasury bills
This document is prepared by Acus Consulting and Alberto Calva. This document is available at www.AcusConsulting.com
The purpose of this document is to support the executive’s decision making process by presenting in a concise and simple way the available information regarding the changing economic forecasts for Mexico.
Neither Acus Consulting nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions made based on the information or comments here presented, neither for the accuracy of the figures.
About Acus Consulting. This firm supports companies, organizations and government agencies in financial and strategic analysis, investment project evaluations, financial modeling, valuation of ongoing companies, financial planning, risk analysis and decision making. Acus Consulting works in consulting projects and offers seminars and workshops of finance for executive training. It is based in Toronto.
About Alberto Calva. His expertise field is finance and economy. He has been a business consultant for more than 20 years. He has given seminars and workshops in 8 different countries having trained with this around 10,000 executives and entrepreneurs from 20 different countries. He has a unique mix of academic, practical, entrepreneurial, hands on experience and board member background. He holds a Bachelor degree of Industrial Engineering, a Master degree of Economics and an MBA with a major of Finance.
Alberto Calva // Acus Consulting
Tel. Canada: 416-824-1924 // Tel. USA.: 646-233-3029
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